The end of the Brexit saga
By Žikica Milošević
The Brexit saga began to resemble American TV series – after the exciting two seasons, it started to draw out and compromise on quality. Then, at the end of the 4th season, a little jump in the temperature, and voila – Brexit happens – and we are not talking about No Deal-Brexit. But it’s not that good of a deal.
MAGGIE LED US INTO THE EU, MAGGIE LED US OUT OF THE EU
Brexit has been an essential part of British politics for more than five years, i.e. since the pros and cons campaign began, especially during and after the referendum. To illustrate that the British were not quite clear whether they were in Europe or not, George Orwell once placed the British Isles in Oceania and continental Europe in Eurasia. We only remember the not-so-happy look of Mark Renton from ‘T2: Trainspotting’ when he met a promoter from Slovenia at the airport. In a way, the “divine justice” is that the UK entered the EEC through the efforts of Margaret Thatcher and left it because of the disastrous consequences that her rule left on the “left behind areas” of the UK. Those who did not adjust to her vision of “the new Britain”, and which none of the successors corrected, voted for Brexit. And then it turned into “a hot potato”.
The UK is hoping for new dawn but this time, it will wake up alone in the bed.
WHAT HAVE WE GAINED?
Brexit ruined the career of Jeremy Corbyn, who was ambivalent towards it and the second referendum, and ousted Boris Johnson, who said “better some Brexit than none.” Then it came to an agreement. Sometime around the Anglican Christmas period, an agreement was reached that is better than the relations between the countries as regulated by the WTO, and even better than the agreement that Canada has with the EU, which was the aim of the second half of the negotiations. The deal is formally stuck around one important thing (whether six of the nine counties of Ulster, known as Northern Ireland, will remain in the common market), and one seemingly trivial – fishing rights in the UK waters. If you think that the latter is irrelevant, remember that Greenland, Iceland, Norway and the Faroe Islands remained outside the EU, among other things, precisely because of this “banality”.
Northern Ireland will remain part of the EU’s common market, and the issue of customs modalities between NI and GB (such are the car markings for these two parts of the UK) will be another subject of debate. How the IRA and the former “Southern Ireland” will react remains to be seen in the decades to come, aside from the sharp division of public opinion about remaining in the EU (the Catholics) and leaving (the Protestants). Some have also mentioned the “repartition of Ireland” – where Catholic parts of the NI would join the Republic. In Scotland, there are no such divisions, at least not to such an extent. There was a clear majority in favour of remaining in the EU. But as they rejected independence in 2014, now we can’t count on a quick new referendum on leaving the UK, even though Nicola Sturgeon really wants that scenario. The most optimistic option is that such a referendum will take place before 2025, which is fair, because Scotland must live as part of the UK and outside the EU to ascertain that it doesn’t like it that much.
Then, it was percentages’ turn. The UK government has accurately calculated that the UK has won in 43% of its requests, the EU in 17% and that a compromise was reached in 40% of contentious issues. The Economist, on the other hand, claims that the UK has given up much more than the EU, which shows that a stronger EU negotiating position was obvious, and that it will be harder for Britain without the EU than vice versa. Boris Johnson triumphantly stated that a trade agreement worth £166 billion had been signed, “in the Canadian style”, and that British goods would make it to the EU shelves without customs duties and quotas, as well as that Britain is “finally free for the first time since 1973”. As far as Britain is concerned, the EU was asking for 14 years for European fishermen to fish in British waters, UK 3, and a compromise has been found at 5.5. Nigel Farage is not satisfied, but said that Johnson “did a fair job”. The Economist estimates that the UK’s GDP will decline by 4% in the coming years than if there had been no Brexit. The Downing Street “begs to disagree”.
WHAT WE DID NOT GAIN?
There is one bad segment of Brexit, and that is that it is almost the whole commodity agreement. For a long time, Great Britain has not been known for its commodities. 80% of the UK economy consists of services, which are the fastest growing part of the world economy, and little has been said about them, which means the tails of the Brexit saga will continue to drag on. The worst affected is a field where the UK has the greatest “soft power” in the world – music. Headliner.rs states: “European tours of British musicians have been called into question due to the Brexit agreement. The UK’s trade agreement with the EU could completely halt British musicians’ visits to Europe because of the visas they may have to apply for before they enter any European country where they want to perform. Although people from various industries will be able to travel to the EU on business without a visa, musicians are not exempt from that. Numerous bands and representatives of the music industry have warned that the additional cost of visas could make going to Europe financially unsustainable. Visa will be required for each member of a music band from the UK that wants to perform in the EU, which costs around 300 euro. If we are talking about a six-member-band, the costs are such that no one will be able to pay for their performance anymore. They may be able to perform in countries outside the EU, such as Serbia, for instance.“
Meanwhile, the UK has signed or is in the process of signing agreements with Turkey, Canada, Australia, the US and the CCI, as well as the Commonwealth countries. The UK is hoping for new dawn but this time, it will wake up alone in the bed.