Text: Žikica Milošević
IF SOMEONE IS NOT FREE, NO-ONE IS GOING TO BE SAFE
In one of the episodes of The Simpsons, The Sideshow Bob rides in his car through the Evergreen Terrace, i.e. The Simpsons family street, proclaiming through his megaphone “The following people shall not be killed by me: Homer Simpson, Marge Simpson, Lisa Simpson, this little baby Simpson, and that’s all.” Clearly, Bart Simpson was not mention. It meant that he will be killed. The same thing happened in Iraq with Sunni Muslims and in the USA with white males. In America, all the possible groups were enlisted as “special”: women, Afro-Americans, Latinos, LGBTQ, etc. You are all protected, unless you are white male. Then everyone can target you. No special protection for you.
Then you become an endangered minority. In Iraq, Sunnis ruled the country for decades. After the Saddam’s fall, The Kurds and the Shiites, formerly oppressed groups, became the rulers. The Kurds formed their region and the Shiites effectively ruled the country. All of a sudden, the Sunni Arabs were unprotected minority. In both cases the ex-ruling class became unprotected minority. And the American white males voted for Trump, the Sunni Arabs protested for a decade until they formed Islamic State. The moral of the story: if there is no justice for all, even for the former rulers and sometimes oppressors, there will be no peace for anyone. The year we are entering is going to be marked with the attempts to soften the rage of “new pariahs” and their backlash. The idea for Iraq and Syria could be quite easy, if everyone agrees: a “Dayton”. Loose federation of ethno-religious groups: in Iraq – Iraqi Kurdistan, Iraqi Shiastan, Iraqi Sunnistan, Assyria and Iraqi Turkmenistan. Just an idea. And for Syria, it could be Alawistan (a future safe harbour for the Assads even if the nationaln elections prove to be against them), Syrian Kurdistan, Jebel Druze, and few Sunni regions, one more liberal (like Western Syria) and one more conservative (Eastern Syria). Everyone would lose something, but the system could be sustainable. In the West, the “rebellion of the white males” or, more precisely “the rebellion of the white core” will be on the rise. There are approximately as many women in all these populist movements and voters, so it is not all-male movement at all.
THE MULTIVECTORIAL EUROPE
In 2004, Europe looked peaceful and uniting. 10 new members from Eastern and Southern Europe joined. Kofi Annan drew the plan of uniting Cyprus. The Schengen agreement has proven to be good, free flow of people was fantastic. Euro was on the rise. There was no Kosovo, no Abkhazia and South Ossetia, no Crimea. Now, in 2017 the Poles who were admired for their Solidarity fight against Communism and the Lithuanians who rebelled against the USSR first, made the Brits angry enough to leave the EU. The wave of immigrants from white, Christian Europe flooded the West: the Poles and Lithuanians in Ireland, UK, Scandinavia. Romanians and Bulgarians in Italy, France, Portugal. Instead of praising the fresh blood, the people are fed up with the newcomers. The same is to be expected with Ukrainians when they start leaving their impoverished country. And it is just the matter of time when there will be so many of them (in Poland, especially, since the languages are quite similar) when some would say, Enough, go home! It would be a sad turn of events. Support for Euromaidan in 2013, dislike in 2017. Europe has to do a lot to calm down the disgruntled Southern states which cannot stand fiscal austerity any longer, to develop the East to ease being the source of immigrant to the West (Bulgaria lost 2 million people in 20 years, and Latvia and Lithuania are the fastest-diminishing populations in the EU!). The new formula for “being European” has to be found. Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine are crippled since they cannot control their whole territory, and the USA and Russia hold the keys to their faith.
A MULTITUDE OF YALTAS
Therefore it is not only that we need “A New Yalta”, we need plentitude of New Yaltas and perhaps a “new Berlin Congress” or a “New Versaille”. With the same rules for everyone. Solve it all, from Western Sahara and Palestine, to Northern Cyprus, Kosovo, Abkhazia and Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh. At once. Or, make many “new separate Yaltas”. One for Cyprus (UK, Greece, Turkey), one for Syria (Russia, Turkey, Iran, perhaps Saudi Arabia) etc. And there will probably be a “Global Trinity” made of Russia, China and the USA. Pretty much like in Orwell’s 1984: Eurasia, Eastasia and Oceania. All organised by Kissinger perhaps. But the three superpowers are going to sit down and deal with everything, from politics to economy. And in the new balance we could all profit. Even our region, always torn apart by the USA, Russia and Turkey. If they get along, their proxies and allies will get along probably.
And the final question is in France, The Netherlands and Germany. Perhaps Marine Le Pen will not win and leave the EU, causing its demise. It could be François Fillon, a “Catholic Thatcherite”. In a country traditionally not-too-religious and quite Socialist, it could be another revolution. France and The Netherlands voted againts the EU Constitution, remember? They hold the keys now. And finally, Germany might loose its government which relies on free immigration and fiscal austerity. They will either loose elections or just peacefully shift their policies to restriction of immigration and fiscal generosity. Wait, the latter is already happening.